DOGE Terminations in FY25: What the Numbers Say — and What’s Still to Come

We are just a couple weeks away from the end of Fiscal Year 25, and what an eventful year it has been. A few months have passed since we last looked at the DOGE-related cancellations, and I thought it would be a good idea to revisit the extent of terminations.

For this update, I have looked at the transactions that are terminated for convenience from 1/1/2025 through 8/26/2025. A few reminders:

• The final savings amount will be known after the termination process is completed. This process can take time!
• There is a 90-day delay before Deparment of Defense (DoD) transactions are made public
• Transactions reported in DOGE’s Wall of Savings are not necessarily what is reflected in FPDS, which is the authoritative federal government repository of all federal contract data

The Big Picture as of August 26, 2025:

• 33,701+ actions terminated across 6,154 companies.

• $2.51B de-obligated to date.

• $4.6B in “Base and Exercised Options Value” de-obligated.

• $329.8B in “Base and All Options Value” tied to terminated contracts. (Note: The “Base and all Options Value” is the maximum amount of the contract value, and does not necessarily indicate obligated amounts.)

These headline figures show the scale of DOGE-related terminations—tens of thousands of actions and billions in dollars. Even though not all values represent actual spend, the data gives us an early pulse on how widespread contract disruptions are in FY25.

Looking at the top agencies by number of termination actions, the GSA, Department of Defense (DoD), Health & Human Services (HHS), Agency for International Development (USAID), and Department of Agriculture (USDA) top the list.

With the Defense agency numbers coming out, we are now seeing Defense, Navy, Airforce and Army in the mix. We expect to see these numbers continue to increase as the defense data is made public.

High volume terminations at GSA and DoD signal systemic shifts in how federal agencies are managing contracts. For businesses, this underscores the potential volatility and risk exposure when relying heavily on these agencies.

When ranked by dollars de-obligated in FY25, we see a different picture. The Department of Health and Human Services is the top agency, followed by USAID, DoD, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.

Since our last DOGE update in June 2025, we have yet to see HHS fall from its ranking as the leading agency in terms of de-obligated amounts, with de-obligations at $695M, up from $263M.

These numbers will change over the coming months as we see more DoD numbers released, and also as companies and agencies go through the contract termination processes.

Ultimately, this data shows us that it’s not just about how many contracts are cut—it’s about the size. Agencies like HHS and USAID are pulling back on high-dollar contracts, signaling potential pivots in program funding priorities.

Diving further into the Department of Defense numbers (including Army, Navy, Air Force, and all bureaus that fall under DoD), there were 5,232 actions (16% of the total actions) that resulted in more than $482M (19% of the total amount) in de-obligations. These numbers are expected to increase over the coming months as the DoD data is made available in FPDS.

The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) tops the list, both in the number of actions and dollars de-obligated. Other major agencies include the Air Force, Army, and Navy.

DoD terminations are lagging indicators, but highly consequential. As defense data catches up, the numbers will reshape FY25’s termination picture—impacting major primes and subcontractors alike.

Year to date, less than 15% of the total amount de-obligated came from set-aside awards. Not surprisingly, small business set-asides accounted for the largest share of de-obligations, followed by Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (SDVOSB) set-asides, 8(a) sole source, and 8(a) competed awards.

Set-asides remain vulnerable. Based on the number of actions, we expect to see the dollars de-obligated increase across the categories, and, unfortunately, our veteran-owned businesses will be negatively affected.

In terms of the top NAICS codes, we see Pharmaceutical Manufacturing lead with the highest amount in terms of de-obligations, followed by NAICS codes related to Administrative Management & Professional Services. In the mix are also NAICS related to Construction, Property Management, Computer Design Service, and, surprisingly, Offices of Lawyers.

It is essential to keep in mind that the top NAICS codes will differ for each agency based on the type of work that the agency does. These top NAICS codes tie in with the top agencies that have seen de-obligations.

Using a platform like Fedmine, we can delve further into the numbers, connecting the dots between agencies, industry codes, and original contract requirements, thus providing transparency and the details of the terminations. For example, I was curious to understand the major de-obligation amount in the Pharmaceutical Manufacturing industry (NAICS code 325412). 24 companies had de-obligations; however, the largest amount ($352M) was to Genentech USA for Tamiflu.

I also like to look at Product Services Codes, as doing so provides a better idea of the type of work that is actually being cut. In this case, I found that the top PSC codes do mirror the top NAICS. The alignment with NAICS trends confirms broad cuts across both technical and support services.

With all of the executive orders, the FAR rewrite, and expected changes to acquisition, I took a closer look at the de-obligations under the schedules and various GWACs. As expected, GSA Schedules lead in terms of actions and amount de-obligated YTD, followed by NASA SEWP V. OASIS and OASIS SB are also in the top 5 vehicles that have seen de-obligations.

The takeaway from this is that even widely used government-wide acquisition contracts (GWACs) are not shielded. Contractors leveraging schedules must prepare for increased scrutiny and potential mid-stream cancellations.

When looking at de-obligations by total dollar based on place of performance, Washington, D.C. comes out on top, followed closely by California, with Virginia and Texas also ranking high. Maryland rounds out the top five.

However, the picture shifts when we examine the data by number of actions. Illinois leads with over 3,200 actions, while D.C., New York, Virginia, and Georgia follow. Notably, Georgia stands out with more than 2,000 actions despite lower overall dollar values.

This tells us that geography matters. Contractors in hubs like D.C., California, and Virginia face the largest dollar exposure, while others (Illinois, Georgia) face frequent smaller disruptions that can still destabilize operations.

In terms of contracts awarded as small business or other than small business, 37% of the dollars deobligated year to date were awarded as small business dollars. However, in terms of actions, this accounted for 59% of the total.

In terms of contracts that were terminated for convenience, more than 130 educational institutions saw de-obligations across 288 actions that totaled $8.42M year to date.

Contracts that were awarded as OTAs saw less than $30.9M in de-obligations.

In terms of dollars de-obligated, 49.55% of the contracts did not have a subcontract plan. However, 50.45%or $1.267B, of the dollars de-obligated, making up over 2,421 actions, had a subcontracting plan.

Small businesses, universities, and subcontractors are all feeling the impact, which could affect workforce pipelines, research programs, and local economies.

Contract terminations for convenience in FY25, and the dollars de-obligated because of it, are both broad and deep—touching all agencies, industries, and contract vehicles With defense reporting delays and lengthy termination processes, the data is still evolving. These numbers offer early insight into the agencies that are affected, as well as small businesses that are impacted, by these unexpected terminations.

With just a few weeks remaining in the fiscal year, agencies and contractors alike should stay prepared for more turbulence. The full picture may not be clear for months—or even years—but the early signals point to a shifting procurement landscape that demands agility, diversification, and vigilance.